Monthly Report September 2024
This month, we are covering the far-right electoral victory in Thuringia, Germany’s temporary land border controls, and escalating conflicts in the Middle East.
We are thrilled to launch our monthly reports, in which we track and analyse events and trends using our hate speech monitoring dashboard. Each report delivers key insights and useful data visualizations that help you make sense of the online hate speech landscape.
Data for September was based on 612,762 posts in 27 languages, across 6 social media platforms: Reddit, X, 4chan, Gab, YouTube, and Facebook.
Content warning: Presented data may contain disturbing language related to online hate speech.
A month of political and violent events
Toxicity levels for this month remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.26 and 0.2. A small decline was recorded in the first three days of September, followed by a minor spike in the second half of the month.
The initial reduction in online toxicity in early September may reflect the aftermath of a heated period following a stabbing attack in Solingen, Germany, which resulted in three deaths and eight injuries. With the Islamic State claiming responsibility for the attack, Anti-Muslim views increasingly circulated among far-right groups in Germany, who see it as a direct result of the country’s immigration policies.
The second half of the month was marked by increased political tension in the Middle East. On September 17th and 18th, rigged communication devices used by Hezbollah exploded in Lebanon and Syria. The sabotage was allegedly conducted by Israel, resulting in over 30 deaths and hundreds of people injured. Soon after, on September 23rd, Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon led to 492 deaths and widespread displacement in Beirut’s southern suburbs. These events likely intensified polarisation and hostility in online discussions.
Germany in the spotlight
This month, we will focus on the significant fluctuations in toxicity in German language discussions online, which were notably influenced by key political and violent events.
On September 1st, the far-right German party AfD won state elections in Thuringia, while in Saxony the party came second by a slim margin. The AfD has built a strong online presence during the electoral campaigns, promoting a polarised and emotionally charged narrative following the party’s victory.
On September 16th, the German government announced temporary border restrictions on all land borders to control illegal migration, and partly in response to concerns over deadly knife attacks by a Syrian asylum seeker in the city of Solingen in late August and another stabbing in Bonn.
Finally, the Austrian far-right Freedom Party won national elections on September 29th, with an electoral program focused on concerns around the Ukraine war, migration, and inflation. There is a strong possibility that these political events have shaped fluctuations in German online toxicity throughout September.
Roma and LGTBQ+ most targeted minorities
This month, the Roma communities faced the highest levels of toxicity in our baseline channels, with the LGBTQ+ community close behind. While discussions about Jews and Muslims were less toxic, they were still subjected to hateful messages.
These findings are consistent with broader trends across Europe. A 2023 report from the European Union Agency for Fundamental Rights (FRA) identified Roma as the second largest minority group facing online abuse and harassment, after women. In fact, 65% of respondents in a European survey reported perceiving widespread discrimination against Roma in their own country.
Similarly, LGBTQ+ communities continue to face widespread discrimination despite Europe's reputation for progressive policies. The Eurobarometer discrimination survey highlighted that 54% of respondents believe discrimination based on sexual orientation is still prevailing in their country. Moreover, an assessment by the LGBTQ+ advocacy group ILGA highlighted that 14 European countries, including Italy, Poland, and the Czech Republic, do not have hate speech laws that explicitly include sexual orientation as an aggravating factor.
Below, a more detailed timeline of social media toxicity is provided. The levels of toxicity for the baseline channels are significantly higher than the average toxicity observed across all social media platforms, showing the heightened hostility faced by minority groups online.
It's important to note that smaller sample sizes in toxic messages (e.g., Roma, N=1771) can lead to more pronounced fluctuations. A lower volume of data is more likely to produce a spikier baseline trend compared to larger sample sizes (e.g., Sexism, N=243.945), where the trendline tends to be more stable and consistent.
Drawing attention to the Middle East conflict
In light of the escalating conflict in the Middle East, particularly the tensions surrounding Israel, we generated two word clouds to analyse the most frequently used terms related to Jews and Muslims in online discussions throughout September. These visualisations provide insights into how religious discourse is being shaped by the political and violent events of the region.
The data shows that conversations involving both Jewish and Muslim communities are dominated by terms linked to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. “Israel” emerges as one of the most prominent keywords in both word clouds, reflecting how deeply the conflict influences discussions around these religious groups. Other terms like “Hamas,” “Palestine,” and “Hezbollah” also feature strongly, indicating that online discourse is not limited to religious debates but is intertwined with political and territorial concerns.
The inclusion of religious terms such as “Torah,” “Quran,” “Judaism,” and “Islam” alongside these geopolitical references points to the complex and often polarised nature of these conversations. The overlap between political and religious narratives, as seen in the word clouds, highlights the extent to which ongoing events in the Middle East are fueling hostility, polarisation, and at times, hateful rhetoric directed at both Jewish and Muslim communities online.