Falling Birth Rates and Rising Hate: The Dangerous Politics of Demographics
Worldwide fertility has fallen from an average of 5 births per woman in 1950 to 2.3 births per woman in 2021, reflecting, among other reasons, the increasing control individuals—particularly women—have over their reproductive lives.
By 2050, fertility is projected to fall further to 2.1 births per woman. For decades, fear-mongering over declining birth rates and demographic shifts fuelled racist and sexist narratives within conspiracy theories, far-right movements, and white supremacist ideologies. These narratives often serve a dual purpose. On the one hand, they target women and their right to bodily autonomy, positioning them as both the problem and the solution to limit the replacement of the white population. On the other hand, they spread racist messages that portray migrants as the main contributors to the decline of the autochthonous white European population - the key narrative of the ‘Great Replacement’ conspiracy theory. The fear of demographic decline and the mission to "rebirth" the white population have long been propaganda themes in far-right ideology, including Brenton Tarrant’s Great Replacement manifesto. The Great Replacement proponents have found ways to bring together different grievances about the decline in the birth rate. These resentments are directed to migration, feminism, abortion, and LGBTQ altogether.
This piece investigates how this conversation evolves in fringe and mainstream platforms through our monitoring dashboard.
In our Sexism baseline*, we observed an increase in the use of the term ‘birth rate’ since the first half of January.
This graph shows weekly counts of social media posts mentioning "birth rate" across monitored platforms from September 2024 to March 2025
*In our Sexism channel, we investigate conversations around words such as woman, man, boy, and girl.
A deeper analysis shows that feminists are frequently blamed for declining birth rates, aligning with white supremacist ideologies that see feminism, gender equality, and LGBTQ+ rights as threats to traditional values and masculinity.
Next to this, migrants are seen as another threat to the demographic change, with mass migration, multiculturalism, and Islamisation depicted as existential dangers, as we talked about in greater detail in our Great Replacement report. While declining birth rates among native populations are framed as a concern, larger family sizes of immigrant communities are criticized, highlighting the racialised double standards at play.
Because the discourse around fertility rates presents lower birth rates as a "problem to solve," online toxic narratives emerge that undermine women's reproductive rights and bodily autonomy. The urge to control women's bodies and reproduction seems to be deeply connected to racist fears about immigrants. Racism and misogyny reinforce one another, amplifying the perceived threat and fueling a sense of urgency to defend the white race in the West.
Anti-feminist messages amplified by high-profile accounts
The obsession over falling birth rates is central to many far-right ideologies worldwide. The Great Replacement narrative, in particular, is no longer confined to fringe message boards but has become increasingly prominent in social media discourse. Influencers and high-profile far-right accounts on X frequently promote this rhetoric, intertwining anti-feminist, anti-Semitic, and anti-establishment rhetoric rooted in this theory.
For instance, conservative political commentator Tucker Carlson - who has over 5 million followers on X - has brought Great Replacement narratives to a massive audience through his shows and social media presence. In Europe, a similarly influential account is RadioGenoa, an Italian account known for spreading xenophobic and violent messages, often through disinformation.
RadioGenoa: amplifying hate and demographic extremism
Because the account RadioGenoa was frequently cited in our Sexism baseline, we conducted an investigation using this name as a keyword. RadioGenoa is an Italian account known for spreading xenophobic and violent messages, often through disinformation. The average toxicity score of messages linked to RadioGenoa is 0.14, with 55 posts reaching a toxicity score of 0.8 or higher. Highly toxic content is more frequent on Twitter, where discussions often include political themes (9%) and references to violence (15%). In less than a year, it amassed over 1 million followers on X, gaining visibility through anti-immigration rhetoric amplified by Elon Musk, reaching over 70 million viewers for one post alone (see below).
Beyond promoting xenophobic messages, the RadioGenoa profile and its followers advocate for increasing the birth rate among White women as the supposed solution to demographic decline.
The term ‘women’ was cited 2002 times, followed by ‘Islam (168)’, ‘Muslims’ (145), and ‘White women’ (109), suggesting the interplay of misogyny and anti-muslim sentiment. Additionally, terms like ‘remigration’ and ‘abuse’ appeared frequently, reflecting how narratives often frame women as both victims to be "protected" and as contributors to societal decline due to feminism and multiculturalism. This word cloud illustrates how different forms of hate—sexism, racism, and Islamophobia—intersect and reinforce one another in these discussions.
From online toxicity to policy: the real-world impact of demographic fearmongering
The analysed online conversations blame the demographic change as a combination resulting from low fertility rates among native women and the replacement of autochthonous populations due to mass migration. This online sentiment is, in some countries, reflected in pronatalist policies, ethnic nationalism, and promoting ‘traditional family values’. Restricting reproductive freedoms has proven ineffective in reversing demographic trends. Instead, policies that promote gender equality—such as access to childcare, parental leave, and workplace equity—offer a far more effective and sustainable path for low-fertility societies. The spread of these toxic narratives online is not confined to digital spaces—it directly influences political agendas, shaping restrictive policies that curtail reproductive rights and fuel xenophobic policymaking. As online hate continues to translate into real-world consequences, understanding and countering these narratives is critical to safeguarding democracy and human rights.
Key takeaways
Central to the Great Replacement belief is a racist fear over the demographic extinction of the autochthonous population, which creates two primary scapegoats: women and migrants
This obsession with demographics fuels misogynist sentiments rooted in the desire to control women’s bodies and regulate ‘native’ birth rates
The control over women’s reproduction is intertwined with racism, driven by fears of high birth rates among non-white populations as well as concerns over interracial relationships
These narratives are not only confined to the online sphere- they also manifest in public policies and have inspired terroristic attacks