From a fringe conspiracy to a mainstream concern, the Great Replacement theory has transformed into a potent narrative shaping public discourse, fuelling fear and division across social and political landscapes.

The Great Replacement theory is a racist conspiracy theory that claims that non-white migrants and minority communities, particularly Muslims and Africans, are culturally and demographically replacing white populations in Western countries. Its central premise is the belief that nonwhite, particularly Muslim, migrants inherently threaten the ethnic and cultural heritage of white Europeans. Often intertwined with antisemitic rhetoric, it accuses “Jewish elites” of orchestrating mass migration and demographic shifts.

19th-century roots

The theory’s origins date back to late 19th-century white nationalist ideologies circulating in Europe and white-majority countries. Figures like Charles Pearson, Madison Grant, and David Lane, promoted the terms ‘white extinction’ and ‘white genocide’. More recently, it gained prominence in 2011 through French writer Renaud Camus in his book The Great Replacement. Camus argued that nonwhite populations are overtaking white Europeans in culture and demographics, emphasizing declining birth rates among white people as a key factor, exacerbated by mass migration policies.

The Great Replacement theory is frequently linked to the Kalergi Plan, another far-right conspiracy theory. This narrative falsely alleges that 20th-century politician Richard von Coudenhove-Kalergi, founder of the Pan-European Union, conspired to replace white Europeans via racial mixing and immigration. Misinterpretations of his 1925 book Praktischer Idealismus, where he speculated about the blending of races due to globalisation, fuel this theory. Though debunked, such narratives are weaponised by white supremacists and far-right groups to propagate fears of cultural and demographic change.

The Great Replacement today

Once relegated to extremist circles, the theory has increasingly entered mainstream discourse. A 2023 survey revealed that 32% of UK adults believe the Great Replacement is occurring, with similar concerns expressed by 61% of French citizens in 2021. The theory has been promoted in mainstream U.S. and European politics, particularly by far-right figures, and has appeared in rhetoric around immigration policies.

In the UK, Prime Minister Keir Starmer accused the previous government of turning Britain into “a one-nation experiment in open borders.” This rhetoric resonates with fears about cultural homogeneity and appeals to voters concerned about the social and economic implications of immigration. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has similarly invoked the theory to defend stringent immigration policies, portraying migrants as threats to European Christian values. Media figures, such as Tucker Carlson have amplified replacement narratives, framing demographic changes as intentional policies aimed at undermining native populations. Such rhetoric blurs the line between fringe conspiracies and mainstream political strategies, perpetuating polarisation and fuelling divisive debates.

Violence and radicalisation

The theory has inspired multiple acts of violence, including terrorist attacks. In 2019, the Christchurch mosque shootings in New Zealand, which claimed 52 lives, were carried out by a perpetrator who titled his manifesto The Great Replacement. The document emphasised Islamophobia, white decline, and called for racial segregation and forced remigration. Replacement narratives were cited by mass shooters in Utøya, Norway (2011), the Tree of Life synagogue in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (2018), and El Paso, Texas (2019). Despite this common ideological thread, each perpetrator – all white men – targeted different groups they associated with the great replacement.

The Great Replacement online

An analysis of 1,924 posts collected between September 3 and January 15, 2025, highlights the sustained toxicity in discussions surrounding the Great Replacement theory. Most posts originated from X (71%), followed by YouTube (13%) and 4Chan (8%). Toxicity scores averaged 0.56, with 100 posts surpassing a high toxicity level of 0.8. High-toxicity content was particularly prevalent on 4Chan and often intertwined with politics (23%) and racism (19%). Approximately 41% of the posts involved violent themes, frequently using terms like ‘replacement theory’, ‘jews’ and ‘freemasons’, ‘communism’, ‘miscegenation’, and ‘white genocide’.

Birth decline narrative

Proponents of the Great Replacement theory exploit concerns about Europe's declining birth rate, suggesting higher birth rates among nonwhite immigrants are leading to the demographic replacement of native Europeans.

For instance, a BBC program showcasing a competition of high school students with diverse backgrounds was reposted by an account, accompanied by quotes from Renaud Camus. The event was portrayed as a symbolic shift from European "ancestral roots" to a nonwhite populace, reinforcing fears about the erosion of traditional European identity.

The event was portrayed as a symbolic shift from European "ancestral roots" to a nonwhite populace, reinforcing fears about the erosion of traditional European identity.

Intersection of politics and racism

Analysis revealed that hateful messages involving both politics and racism co-occurred the most frequently, with 1494 messages reflecting this intersection. The second biggest intersection was between Untruth and Racism, with 1182 messages.

*Visualisation of the intersections between different categories, darker colours indicate more frequent interactions*

The Great Replacement theory has increasingly penetrated mainstream political discourse. While rooted in extremist ideologies, its core themes, which address immigration and national identity, are echoed by political leaders and commentators. Many narratives we observed through our dashboard focused on terms such as ‘mass migration’, and ‘Islamic immigration’, often blaming European governments for a cover-up or for being ‘too weak’ to combat the ‘replacement plan’. These narratives, bolstered by political figures such as Giorgia Meloni in Italy and Viktor Orbán in Hungary, often intertwine concerns over immigration with broader conspiratorial claims, amplifying fears of "ethnic substitution." This rhetoric has also surfaced in the campaigns of candidates in France and the Netherlands, where anti-immigration sentiment is strategically aligned with the themes of national sovereignty and cultural preservation.

Amplifying fear

Political and far-right influencers play a critical role in propagating great replacement narratives, transforming fringe ideas into widely discussed topics. Figures like Tommy Robinson have capitalized on their extensive social media presence to disseminate these theories. With millions of followers, Robinson’s platforms have become significant vectors for amplifying messages of cultural threat and demographic change. His book, Manifesto: Free Speech, Real Democracy, Peaceful Disobedience, for instance, claimed to present “five years of research” on mass migration as evidence of replacement.

The above post promoting the book amassed over 700,000 views, amplifying fears of Islamisation and the erosion of white British identity among his audience. Such actions illustrate how influencers with substantial reach can magnify conspiratorial narratives, entrenching them further within public and political discourse.

This post gives another example of a replacement narrative been amplified to a wide audience by a popular page. A comment by a woman suggesting a reversed role of the British colonial rule has drawn online backlash and has been picked up by a popular page. With over 27K followers, the page disseminates anti-immigration content, fuelling fears of White American and British identities being undermined by non-white citizens.

Word cloud data from the analysis reveals recurring use of terms such as "Jews," "Jewish," and "Kalergi Plan," highlighting the theory's strong antisemitic underpinnings. The mention of “Jewish elites” in association with migration conspiracies reflects a central narrative of blaming Jewish communities for alleged demographic replacement. The frequent invocation of the Kalergi Plan further illustrates how distorted historical references are weaponised to legitimise xenophobic and antisemitic ideologies.

Key observations

The analysis of the Great Replacement narrative underscores the complex dynamics behind its evolution from a fringe conspiracy theory to an influential narrative shaping public discourse.

Key takeaways include:

High toxicity dominates discourse: With an average toxicity score of 0.57, online discussions surrounding the theory exhibit pervasive hostility, escalating tensions in digital spaces.
Birth rate decline as a focal point: Advocates exploit fears over Europe’s declining birth rates, positioning demographic shifts as evidence of cultural erosion.
Government blamed in mass migration narratives: The intersection of racism and politics (the most frequent co-occurrence in analysed messages) underscores accusations that governments are complicit in addressing migration, perpetuating divisive and extremist ideologies.
Influencers amplify conspiratorial fears: Far-right influencers like Tommy Robinson leverage their vast online followings to spread Great Replacement narratives. Through books and viral posts, they amplify fears of cultural threats and demographic change, embedding these theories deeper into public and political discourse.

The Great Replacement Theory: From Fringe Conspiracy to Mainstream Narrative